How AI can Uncover and Scale the Unseen Growth Engines in the Beverage Business 

In leading beverage companies, as well as in most large consumer goods organizations, there’s a common paradigm: linking sales growth directly to meticulously planned campaigns, major launches, or disruptive innovations. However, reality shows that a significant portion of growth occurs unintentionally. This phenomenon, known as Accidental Growth, refers to incremental sales generated spontaneously, outside explicit strategic initiatives. What if we could detect and intentionally scale this hidden growth? 

For the past 20 years, at Tandem, we have supported hundreds of global consumer goods companies. In nearly every case, we’ve identified examples of Accidental Growth. While not a new issue, its importance is increasingly evident today, thanks to Decision Intelligence tools that facilitate identifying and exploiting these unintended opportunities. 

The first step is acknowledging that Accidental Growth is not just present in large organizations; it represents millions of dollars in untapped opportunities.  

Real Examples of Accidental Growth in Beverage Companies 

Among the most common examples we have identified in beverage companies are an SKU significantly boosting sales purely due to shelf placement at the point of sale, a flavor spontaneously gaining popularity on social media without deliberate brand promotion, and a default digital combo package featuring a specific beverage that drives sales without consumers explicitly noticing. These represent just a few examples among many others. 

These dynamics often go unnoticed because traditional analytics systems focus on explaining known results rather than revealing the unexpected. This is where Artificial Intelligence can make a crucial difference through frameworks, tools, and algorithms. 

Additionally, companies typically avoid deep analysis when things seem to be going well. If sales are stable and targets are met, the trend is simply to maintain current strategies. But what if you could sell even more, surpass your objectives, and unlock exponential growth? 

There are likely many decisions you are making that already yield positive results but could be optimized further. There are also decisions you are not making or don’t even know you should make. These are all opportunities lost amid large quantities of data left unanalyzed. 

How can Artificial Intelligence identify and scale Accidental Growth? 

Here are some illustrative examples we’ve explored in our work: 

1. Anomaly Detection: Discovering Positive Outliers 

Anomaly detection through unsupervised learning algorithms reveals unexpected sales spikes or market share increases that can’t be explained by investment, seasonality, or pricing. These positive anomalies highlight areas where something spontaneously works, ready to be explored and amplified. 

2. Semantic Clustering of Consumer Behavior 

Analyzing millions of consumer reviews and comments with advanced data processing tools uncovers emerging trends, spontaneous uses, and motivations expressed by consumers but still off the company’s radar. Such insights can inform new offerings or strategic adjustments to capture these trends. 

3. Causal Modeling for Latent Sales Drivers 

Comparing SKU performance in similar contexts through causal models identifies unnoticed yet critical growth factors such as physical visibility, point-of-sale competition, ambient temperature, or friction in digital channels. These models uncover patterns driving accidental growth, allowing companies to intentionally replicate them. 

4. Recommendation Models to Scale Accidental Success 

Once identified, successful patterns can be translated into recommendation models that replicate them in similar contexts with high success probability. Thus, accidental hits in product combinations, specific layouts, or promotions can become intentional strategic levers.

Why Is This Crucial for CPG Companies? 

According to KPMG data, 68% of consumer products executives say they have “difficulty generating organic growth in today’s mature, highly competitive markets.” Failing to detect and leverage existing hidden opportunities implies a critical cost of missed potential. 

Artificial intelligence doesn’t replace traditional strategy; it reveals growth territories invisible to conventional methods. At Tandem, we apply Data Decision Intelligence to optimize decision-making, integrating advanced analytics with deep business knowledge, transforming insights into concrete actions and measurable results. 

Data Decision Intelligence: From Insights to Strategic Decisions 

Applying Data Decision Intelligence to Accidental Growth involves three distinct levels of AI and human integration. The key is matching each decision to the appropriate integration level: 

• Supported Decisions: AI provides high-quality, robust information to human decision-makers, helping them identify new growth drivers by exploring anomalies and emerging trends. Humans retain full control, using AI insights to detect and leverage accidental growth opportunities.

• Automated Decisions: Fully automating stable, routine decisions through predictive systems based on clearly defined business rules. At this level, AI handles decisions independently, improving accuracy and speed, which frees up teams to focus on creative, strategic opportunities. 

• Augmented Decisions: Enhancing partially stable decisions by employing prescriptive AI models to detect and systematically embed accidental growth opportunities into sales strategies. In this optimal integration, humans and AI actively collaborate, maximizing their joint potential to achieve superior business outcomes. 

Turning Potential into Reality 

In highly competitive food and beverage markets, uncovering and scaling Accidental Growth isn’t just a smart move. It’s essential. Artificial Intelligence and Data Decision Intelligence enable companies to transform hidden, spontaneous wins into strategic, repeatable results, turning previously invisible opportunities into sustainable market advantages. 

Luck might spark accidental success, but relying on luck isn’t a sustainable strategy. Instead, leverage data-driven insights to make growth intentional, predictable, and scalable. 

The hidden potential to achieve profitable and sustainable growth, through fully connected, cross-functional strategies, already lies within your organization.

The real question is: will you seize it first, or let your competitors capture it before you do? 

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José Luis Fernández de Castro, Senior Manager Business Consulting at Tandem

jlf@tandemsd.com