AI in Vaca Muerta: The Silent Revolution Behind Smarter Strategic Decisions
(Guest Commentary for Energia & Negocios)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has evolved beyond a high-tech novelty to become a vital strategic resource across industries—including energy. In Argentina, one of the places where this technological shift is gaining traction is Vaca Muerta, one of the most significant shale oil and gas formations in the world, with the potential to transform the country’s energy matrix.
The Present Situation in Vaca Muerta
Why is AI especially relevant in a context like Vaca Muerta? Because it’s a landscape marked by high levels of economic, regulatory, and operational uncertainty. Oil prices are volatile and difficult to forecast. Environmental regulations are increasingly demanding. And decisions made in this basin often involve multi-billion-dollar, long-term investments.
Until now, most AI applications in Vaca Muerta have focused on technical and operational use cases. Predictive maintenance is a leading example, where algorithms analyze massive operational datasets to anticipate failures in critical equipment. The result: reducing downtime and cutting costs.
These applications are essential and have driven important progress. However, there is still a vast, high-impact opportunity that remains underexplored: applying AI to strategic business decisions. This is where a new paradigm comes into play—Decision Intelligence.
From Artificial Intelligence to Decision Intelligence: Moving from Analysis to Impact
Based on our experience in recent years, we’ve seen firsthand what happens when strategic decisions are made without robust prospective or probabilistic analysis: major investments launched with limited regulatory insight, overly optimistic market scenarios, or without accounting for portfolio balance. The result? Budget overruns, underperformance, and missed return targets.
Decision Intelligence changes the question. Instead of asking, “What data do we need?”, it starts with, “What decisions must we make?” This shift allows organizations to align analytics with business objectives and structure complex decisions by integrating data, algorithms, and human judgment.
At Tandem, we’ve identified three key areas where strategic AI implementation delivers real value:
Investment Prioritization
AI can model multiple real-time scenarios and account for variables like market fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and regulatory shifts. But the real advantage lies in designing decision models that clarify alternatives, criteria, and trade-offs. Decision Intelligence offers a structured approach. Mapping objectives, generating strategic options, and evaluating expected outcomes probabilistically.
Agility from Early Signals
AI can detect early signals in pricing trends and regulatory environments. But without organizational structures that translate these insights into concrete decisions, the value is lost. Decision Intelligence connects insight to action, ensuring knowledge reaches the right people with governance, transparency, and collective learning.
Anticipating Operational and Strategic Deviations
By identifying hidden patterns, AI can alert teams to potential deviations before they impact EBITDA. Decision Intelligence enables leaders to act on better information with less bias and noise, helping prioritize alternatives based on business goals, constraints, and risk exposure.
This is no longer about customizable alerts. It is about 24/7 analytical capabilities processing complex, interdependent variables at a scale beyond human capacity. While AI works to detect nuances, identify patterns, and prevent failures, human leaders can stay focused on making the strategic decisions that matter most, enriched by everything AI brings to the table.
Because in a context like Vaca Muerta, technology alone is not enough to improve the quality of strategic decisions. The real differentiator is how leaders design, integrate, and use these tools. AI must act as an extension of human judgment, not a replacement. In this sense, decision makers in the energy industry are like conductors of an orchestra. They coordinate teams, integrate technologies, and set the right pace so every element contributes to a strong, clear decision aligned with the company’s strategic goals.
The Differentiator: Better and Faster Decisions
The strategic value of AI lies not only in the data, but in how that data is connected to business logic to improve the quality and speed of decisions. The ultimate goal is to unlock a project’s full potential through a decision architecture that blends technology, analysis, and experience to enable smarter, replicable, and measurable choices.
The key question today is no longer whether AI has potential, but how to go from data to action with real impact. The message is clear. In high-stakes environments where every decision moves millions, solid analysis is valuable. But a well-designed decision process, powered by AI, is worth even more.
The silent AI revolution has already begun in Vaca Muerta. Energy companies that break free from autopilot mode and rethink their strategic decision making with a structured Decision Intelligence approach will gain a lasting competitive edge.
The revolution is underway. The question is: is your organization ready to lead it?
Federico Esseiva, Partner at Tandem
fe@tandemsd.com